It must be nice to have a niche, or more thoughts on a long tail

Although I really hate to admit it, no one, not even we, can know everything. Honest - we can't. That is the only consolation I can offer T while we bemoan the fact that we have just come to learn about The Long Tail (according to Danny Sullivan, we are not the only ones behind the curve on this). And then today, I read Grant McCracken's blog on The Coca-Cola Company's shift to a long-tail model of marketing - it never ceases to amaze me that the instant you learn a new word (or phrase or theory), all of a sudden it's EVERYWHERE.

So, there we were, discussing niche marketing after reading Saul Hansell's article in the NYT on slivercasting (today, you can find this article here, but with the NYT, access can become restricted), which led us to discuss Starbucks, one of our lovemarks (don't miss Grant on Lovemarks - it's blistering), which led us to discuss whether Starbucks, a $6.7 billion company, can really be said to have a "niche" market. And that led us back around to Saul's article and his reference to a 2004 article in Wired about "the long tail," a term that refers "to the large number of specialized offerings that in themselves appeal to a small number of people, but cumulatively represent a large market that can be easily aggregated on the Internet. Plotted on a graph along with best sellers, these specialized products trail off like a long tail that never reaches zero."

And just like that, we were off. By that definition (requiring small numbers of people for whom specialized offerings can be aggregated on the Internet - and the mind boggles at ordering a Venti non-fat caramel latte, half decaf, easy syrup, online), Starbucks may not be in a "niche" per se - instead, and here we land on yet another of our lovemarks, Starbucks is an extraordinary hedgehog. The key is that their hedgehog is not the coffee, their hedgehog is the experience. But back to the long tail, the niche, and niche marketing... (Did I mention all this was taking place after we had just spent two days at the Nightclub and Bar tradeshow in Las Vegas? Just the place to find products including bottled high-quality olive juice (Dirty Sue), erotic vodka for women (no joke! X-Rated, "the first vodka created to delight women"), metal baskets made to order, lenticular cups (you had no idea, did you?) and more...) You can see how niche marketing was a natural topic of cocktail banter.

What does it all mean? Well, being a hedgehog (not only knowing, but doing, the one thing at which you are great) and having a niche are not the same, although nor are they mutually exclusive. What the long tail ("which is about the shift from hits to niches") tells us is that today more consumers with less popular desires are able to have those desires met - by smart providers who will aggregate similar desires together to create that famous economy of scale. And, conversely, more consumers will be less willing to settle for the next best thing to what they really want. The smartest providers, or aggregators, are hedgehogs to their niche audience - creating a paradox that Chris Anderson, the author of the original Long Tail article, addressed last summer, concluding that the Long Tail of Aggregation is coming soon.

Marketing is changing, and the consumer is driving that change in a way unimaginable 20, even 10, years ago. We want what we want - nothing more and nothing else. American Express is giving us commercials in which we can supply the message, iPod is letting us watch TV in the palm of our hands... we're all on Long Tails... the question we have is, what's the life expectancy of the Short Tails? and who's going to be left in the dust if they disintegrate?